Trump peace plan can work with concrete guarantees and timelines for Israel as well as Hamas

ISRAEL AND PALESTINE  

The state of Gaza peace negotiations as of 14 October 2025 

But I hope that we’re going to have a deal for peace, and if Hamas rejects the deal … Bibi, you’d have our full backing to do what you would have to do. – President Trump announcing his Gaza Peace Plan ultimatum

On 29 September 2025, with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at his side, President Trump launched his 20-point peace plan for Gaza, available here in PDF format. Following indirect talks in Egypt between Israel and Hamas, facilitated by Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, and the US, a Phase One Ceasefire agreement was reached on 9 October and came into effect the next day after its approval by the Israeli government.

Qatari Prime Minister Sheik Mohammed told The New York Times that the Gaza war mediators decided to delay talks on more difficult issues so a hostage-prisoner swap could be concluded quickly:

If we went for full-package negotiations, we wouldn’t have reached these results.

Sheikh Mohammed also stated that, in his view:

Hamas are actually open to have a discussion about how they won’t pose a threat for Israel.

Below are key aspects of the Phase One plan and the state of their implementation as of 14 October:

1. Israel forces pulled back to an ‘agreed deployment line’, designated the “yellow line,” leaving it in control of about 53% of the Strip; (This is the first of three stages of Israeli withdrawal as set out in the overarching Trump plan.)
   • At the time of its redeployment, the IDF stated that it would “continue to remove any immediate threat”, and announced on 14 October that they had killed several Palestinians who they alleged had approached the yellow line.

2. The Israeli forces’ partial withdrawal from Gaza triggered a 72-hour countdown, during which Hamas released all 20 of the living hostages. The return of the bodies of the 28 deceased hostages was to follow, with Hamas signaling potential problems locating bodies under the rubble.
   • By 14 October Hamas had released 4 deceased hostages with the ICRC warning that it was a “massive challenge” to find the other bodies beneath the rubble.
     • The ceasefire agreement, published by Israeli media, acknowledged that Hamas may not be able to locate all remains within the timeframe.

3. Israel, in turn, released 250 Palestinian political prisoners (some to exile) and 1,718 Palestinians detained by Israel, without charge, since 8 October 2023. One of the most high-profile political prisoners, Marwan Barghouti, dubbed the “Palestinian Mandela,” was not released as part of the swap.
4. As of Friday, 10 October, about 600 humanitarian aid trucks were expected to enter Gaza daily to respond to “catastrophic” conditions, characterised by “starvation, destitution and death”.
   • But only a trickle of aid had entered Gaza when, on 14 October, Israel announced the Rafah crossing would not be opened and aid would be further restricted because, in their view, the failure to return the rest of the deceased hostages was a serious ceasefire violation. Trump, for his part, appeared to agree with this interpretation, and late on 14 October, Hamas released the remains of four more deceased hostages.
5. According to a Senior U.S. official, a multinational force of around 200 troops overseen by the US military will monitor the ceasefire. The force’s makeup is likely to include troops from Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates. The official said their role would be to oversee and observe the ceasefire and “make sure there are no violations or incursions”. A second senior US official said no U.S. forces would be on the ground in Gaza.

Trump addresses Knesset and attends signing ceremony in Egypt

A lot of people like the one-state solution. Some people like the two-state solution. We’ll have to see. –  Trump to reporters on his return from Egypt

After flying to Israel to address the Knesset, President Trump presided over a “Peace Summit” in the Egyptian resort of Sharm El-Sheikh, which Israeli President Netanyahu did not attend.

The United States, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey yesterday signed the “Trump Declaration for Enduring Peace and Prosperity,” which commits these nations to “a future of enduring peace,” but provides no specific details on the next stages for ending the war.

Trump plan “fraught with difficulties”

The plan — negotiated between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu and then presented as an ultimatum to Hamas — is fraught with difficulties. Despite being posted before the Phase One agreement came into effect, one of the best analyses we have seen of the overall problems posed by the Trump 20-point plan, and how they might be overcome, is contained in the Arab Digest Newsletter for October 7, 2025. We include it here in full, with the kind permission of Arab Digest.

RI President Peggy Mason comments:

I have been following Arab Digest since 2001, although back then it was a regular email exchange of views among current and former diplomats, business leaders, academics, and journalists. Now a “must-read” website with a Daily Newsletter and weekly podcasts, financed entirely by its members, it consistently lives up to its motto “essential reading from independent sources.”

For readers interested in expert analysis from independent sources on the Middle East and North Africa, I urge you to check out their website, their special rates for students and retirees, and their offer of a 60-day free trial of their Daily Newsletter.

Two Years On: Gaza’s Agony Deepens as US Peace Plan Hangs in the Balance

Arab Digest Newsletter / October 7, 2025

Summary: after two years of devastating war, Gaza faces a catastrophic humanitarian crisis marked by systematic violence against children and collapsed infrastructure, with over 60,000 Palestinians killed. A new U.S.-backed peace plan offers a fragile diplomatic opening, but its success hinges on overcoming deep political obstacles, including Israeli resistance and Hamas’s refusal to disarm without guarantees.

Catastrophic humanitarian situation in Gaza

Two years after Israel launched its military offensive in Gaza the humanitarian situation is catastrophic, with children bearing the deepest scars. Since October 2023, over 60,000 Palestinians have been killed – more than 18,400 were children and 9,700 were women. Life expectancy has plummeted from 75.5 to 40.5 years, a devastating 46% drop, not accounting for indirect deaths from starvation or denied medical care.

The future of Gazans and Gaza itself hangs in the balance

Palestinian women are deliberately humiliated, beaten and sexually harassed. Children are systematically targeted, with reports confirming Israeli forces snipe children – even toddlers – holding white flags, with fatal head and abdominal wounds commonly documented. Daily, an average of 10 children undergo amputations, often without anesthesia due to blocked medical supplies. Their future – and that of Gaza itself – hangs by a thread.

Trump presents Hamas with an ultimatum – accept the plan or else

Last month, during the UN General Assembly U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled a 21-point peace plan with the potential to end the conflict. Drafted without Hamas’s involvement, his proposal aims to secure a ceasefire, facilitate Israeli withdrawal, and place Gaza under an international board chaired by Trump himself. Shortly after, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu introduced substantial revisions, turning the proposal into what many described as a non-negotiable diktat. Trump then presented Hamas with an ultimatum, placing the group in an acutely difficult position.

Accepting the Trump proposal outright was political suicide

Accepting the proposal outright would have meant political suicide – transforming Gaza into a quasi-colonial entity governed by figures like Tony Blair and Jared Kushner, severed from the West Bank, and reducing Palestinians to subordinate roles. Rejection, on the other hand, risked alienating international stakeholders and betraying a population desperate for respite from violence and starvation.

Hamas accepts key elements of the plan

In a deft diplomatic move, Hamas accepted key elements of the plan while calling for clarifications and deferring other points to Palestinian national consensus and international law. This allowed them to appear constructive, avoid outright rejection, and shift responsibility back onto Israel. Hamas’s acceptance also vindicates the strategic logic behind the October 7 attacks, which made Palestinian statehood a renewed subject of international discourse. Now, as negotiations unfold, the central question remains: can this agreement succeed where so many others have failed, or is it destined to become another chapter in a long history of broken promises?

Trump’s plan seeks a definitive end to the war.

What’s different about Trump’s plan is that unlike past ceasefires, which often served as temporary pauses, this one claims to seek a definitive end to the war. It also emerges amid shifting global opinion. Worldwide sympathy for Palestinians has grown substantially, and even traditionally staunch allies of Israel are now openly critical of its conduct. Within the U.S., public sentiment is increasingly vocal in demanding justice for Gaza, placing new pressure on Washington to act.

Disarmament and governance

The agreement, which is deliberately loose and laden with potential loopholes, hinges on two deeply contentious issues: disarmament and governance.

The demand for Hamas to lay down its weapons represents the most significant obstacle. From Hamas’s perspective, disarmament is tantamount to political suicide. Their weapons are not only a symbol of resistance but also, once the hostages have been released, their only leverage. History offers a sobering lesson: after the PLO disarmed in Lebanon in 1982, Palestinians were subjected to the Sabra and Shatila massacres. In Northern Ireland, the IRA did not fully decommission until years after the Good Friday Agreement, once political guarantees were in place.

No mechanisms in the plan to ensure Israeli compliance

This asymmetry all but invites sabotage.

Nothing in Trump’s plan ensures Israeli compliance after Palestinian disarmament. In fact, the agreement allows Israel to determine whether Hamas has sufficiently disarmed and to resume military operations if it decides otherwise. This asymmetry all but invites sabotage [by Israel].

Netanyahu’s survival likely depends on continued conflict

For Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, the war has always been intertwined with his political survival. Israel has hit both a military and psychological wall in Gaza. Casualties mount, domestic pressure grows, yet accepting this deal would likely fracture his ruling coalition and end his career. He has already vowed never to fully withdraw. His incentive is to prolong the conflict, and the agreement’s vague language offers him ample room to do so.

Hamas is aiming for long-term political legitimacy

Hamas, too, is fighting for relevance. Having achieved its central goal – forcing the Palestinian issue back onto the global stage – it now risks overplaying its hand. By accepting a technocratic governance model while insisting on its own inclusion, Hamas is positioning itself for long-term political legitimacy, much like Hezbollah in Lebanon or Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland.

Trump’s credibility is also on the line

The real test is whether Trump can compel Israel to adhere to the terms.

Trump has also put his credibility on the line, threatening Hamas with “all hell breaking loose” if it does not comply and explicitly ordering Israel to stop bombing. But Hamas does not respond to threats and Gaza has already endured hell. The real test is whether Trump can compel Israel to adhere to the terms.

History is not encouraging. No U.S. president has successfully pressured Israel into concessions that fundamentally challenge its security paradigm. The current U.S. administration remains strongly pro-Israel, and Trump’s own “deal of the century” in 2020 was widely criticised as one-sided. This plan, with its single deadline – 72 hours for hostage release – and lack of reference to international law, is flimsier still.

Israel’s goal remains the ethnic cleansing of Gaza

If the past is any guide, Israel will use the hostage exchange as a pretext to reset the terms, declare Hamas non-compliant, and resume hostilities. The goal openly stated by Israeli officials remains the ethnic cleansing of Gaza. This genocidal project enjoys broad popular support in Israel, and many leaders see this war as a historic opportunity.

But elements of the plan could lead to a better political future

Elements of the plan could, in theory, lead to a better political future. If implemented in good faith, international oversight and Arab investment could begin rebuilding Gaza and establish a foundation for eventual statehood. Figures like Al-Jolani in Syria – once designated a terrorist, now negotiating with U.S. officials – show that militant groups can transition into political actors.

Concrete guarantees and timelines are essential

But “ceasefire” has often been a trap in this conflict: a tactical pause used to regroup and intensify violence. Without concrete guarantees, maps of withdrawal, and a clear disarmament sequence tied to political progress, this agreement may simply become another stage in Gaza’s destruction.

Washington must pressure Israel with real consequences

Either the U.S. finally changes its approach or history repeats itself and Gaza continues to burn.

Ultimately, success depends on Washington’s willingness to pressure Israel not with rhetoric, but with real consequences. If Trump is serious, he must be prepared to withhold aid, impose sanctions, and leverage diplomatic capital. Otherwise, this plan will join a long list of U.S.-led initiatives that promised peace but delivered only more suffering.

Two years of violence have left Gaza shattered and its people traumatised. As the world watches, the stakes could not be higher. Either the U.S. finally changes its approach or history repeats itself and Gaza continues to burn.

End of Arab Digest Newsletter for October 7, 2025

Whither Canada?

…Canada recognises the State of Palestine and offers our partnership in building the promise of a peaceful future for both the State of Palestine and the State of Israel. – PM Mark Carney

On 21 September 2025, the Prime Minister’s office released a statement announcing Canada’s official recognition of a Palestinian state. The United Kingdom, Australia, and Portugal did the same. Speaking at the UN on 22 September, at a one-day summit hosted by France and Saudi Arabia on plans for a two-state solution, French President Macron also recognized a Palestinian state. 157 of the UN’s 193 UN member states now recognize the state of Palestine.

Equal security for Israel and Palestine

Canada’s recognition of a Palestinian state is welcome and long overdue, coming as it does in the face of ever-accelerating Israeli efforts to prevent a two-state solution from ever becoming a reality. What is missing, however, is the realization that the recognition of a Palestinian state carries with it the obligation to affirm the equal right to security of Israel and Palestine, in accordance with the sovereign equality of all states under the UN Charter and their fundamental right to security under international law

This failure to acknowledge the full consequences of Canada’s recognition of a Palestinian state is evident in the Global Affairs background documents on Canadian policy on key issues in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, ostensibly updated in light of that recognition. In fact, the very titles of certain subsections reveal the lack of equity when it comes to Palestinian versus Israeli security.

The first section of the background document is entitled “Support for Israel and its security” while the second section is entitled “Support for Palestinians”. The section on Israel focuses entirely on its right “to assure its own security”, but the only reference to security in the ensuing section on Palestine is the need to “demilitarize the Palestinian state,” which denies Palestine the right to assure its own security, while offering nothing in its place.

Canada must immediately update its policies on Israel and Palestine to fully reflect its historic recognition of a Palestinian state. The equal right to security of both Israel and Palestine must be a guiding principle of Canadian support for a two-state solution going forward.

Prime Minister Carney underscores need to build on Phase One Ceasefire Agreement

The Gaza Peace Summit is an historic moment – one that opens a new chapter of hope for Palestinians and Israelis.  – Prime Minister Mark Carney

On 13 October, Prime Minister Carney released a statement on the Middle East Peace Summit in Egypt, emphasizing the need to build on the “vital progress” made with “immediate and sustained action including:

• Humanitarian relief: Israel must open border crossings to enable the unimpeded, sustained, and large-scale delivery of humanitarian assistance to civilians in Gaza.
• Stabilisation and security: The Prime Minister urged all parties to accelerate preparations for a temporary International Stabilization Force to ensure Hamas’ disarmament, facilitate Israeli withdrawal, and protect civilians. He welcomed the efforts of the United States and France in advancing the framework and the pursuit of a UN-mandated mission.
• Governance and long-term peace: Canada reaffirmed its commitment to strengthening the Palestinian Authority’s reform and capacity-building efforts, enabling it to reassume governance responsibilities in Gaza and to ensure that Palestinians are fully engaged in shaping and implementing the next phase of the peace plan.

For a fascinating look at the discussions that took place among world leaders – all in one room waiting for hours -before Trump finally arrived from Israel, click HERE.

Israel is in flagrant violation of aid facilitation commitments under Phase One

Since the issuance of the Prime Minister’s Summit statement, and as noted earlier in this post, Israel has backtracked on its commitment to the full resumption of UN aid to Gaza, alleging that Hamas is deliberately delaying the release of dead hostages buried beneath mountains of rubble.

We commend the Government of Canada for its long-overdue recognition of a Palestinian state and call upon it to act in accordance with that recognition by immediately affirming the equal right to security of both Israel and Palestine, as a fundamental principle guiding our efforts to support, promote and achieve a viable, enduring two-state solution.

To that end, we reiterate – with renewed urgency – our previous calls for Canada to forthwith impose sanctions on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, and the Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff General Eyal Zamir, as evidence of our determination to take concrete steps to support the peace process, beginning with the full resumption of humanitarian assistance to Gaza. 

 

[Editor’s note: Our promised blog post on the landmark advisory opinion issued on 23 July 2025 by the International Court of Justice on the obligations of States in respect of climate change will, hopefully, be available soon!]

Photo credit – Jaber Jehad (Gaza displacement); White House (Announcing 20-point plan).